Skip to content

Florida’s 2026 governor race: Would third-party candidates lock in another Republican victory?

Democrats worry that Jason Pizzo or John Morgan as hopefuls could siphon votes away

John Morgan, a prominent trial lawyer and possible candidate for Florida governor, and state Sen. Jason Pizzo, who says he's running for governor as an independent. (Orlando Sentinel & Sun Sentinel file)
John Morgan, a prominent trial lawyer and possible candidate for Florida governor, and state Sen. Jason Pizzo, who says he's running for governor as an independent. (Orlando Sentinel & Sun Sentinel file)
Author
UPDATED:

Two wealthy political figures think they’ve identified the formula to end a three-decade streak of Republican victories in elections for governor, and give Florida something different.

The ex-Democrats — Jason Pizzo, a South Florida state senator, and John Morgan, the prominent Central Florida personal injury lawyer — are advocating a new approach: a candidate who isn’t tied to Democratic dogma or Republican orthodoxy who can harness the growing number of independent voters and win the governor’s office in 2026 by running as a no-party independent or as the leader of a new third party.

Each believes he is the best person to lead that effort and win the election.

Many Democrats are concerned that a Morgan or Pizzo candidacy would imperil whatever small chance their party might otherwise have in next year’s governor’s race. Republicans privately welcome the prospect of extra candidates who could siphon votes away from the eventual Democratic nominee.

Several independent analysts say Democratic worries and Republican glee is justified.

Pizzo, who represents eastern Broward and northeast Miami-Dade County, says he’ll run as a no-party affiliation candidate for governor.

He declared his intentions in an interview that aired May 11 on WFOR-Ch. 4, less than three weeks after he dramatically declared in a speech on the floor of the Florida Senate that the Democratic Party was “dead,” resigned as the Senate Democratic leader, and changed his voter registration to no party affiliation.

Morgan, speaking Wednesday to the Capital Tiger Bay Club in Tallahassee, touted the idea of a third-party candidacy. Morgan, who left the Democratic Party in 2017, has been floating himself as a possible third-party candidate for months.

He said he’d soon launch a contest to name the party, and promised the winner would receive a cash prize.

Premise

Florida always has third party or no party candidates on the ballot for governor, most of whom are ignored, get around 0.3% of the vote, and are promptly forgotten.

The theory for an independent or third-party candidacy in 2026 is that with Republicans making up 40.0% of the state’s registered voters and Democrats making up 31.1%, there’s an enormous group — three in every 10 registered voters — who aren’t aligned with either party.

It’s those voters — supposedly in the middle and looking for solutions to problems and not enamored of the ideology of either side — who, the thinking goes, have the power to determine the outcome of elections. “NPAs decide who wins elections in this state,” Pizzo said on the WFOR-Ch. 4 “Facing South Florida” program. NPA is the acronym for no party affiliation voters, widely known as independents. Pizzo didn’t respond to interview requests.

Morgan offered a similar, though slightly different assessment on Wednesday in his speech and later to reporters. Running as an independent isn’t good enough, he said, arguing that people want to rally around “a team for all of us stuck in the middle.”

Prospects

As appealing as the premise may sound to some, a range of political analysts and strategists said it’s exceedingly unlikely that a no party candidate or someone running under the banner of a new, as-yet-unnamed party could win.

“Not impossible, but it’s highly unlikely,” said Sean Phillippi, a Democratic strategist who has worked for many political campaigns, in South Florida and statewide. “I would say less than 1% chance.”

The main reason, Phillippi and others said, is that while there is a large share of people who aren’t registered in a political party, that doesn’t mean they are truly “independent” in the way most people think of the term.

And it doesn’t mean that they’re moderate/centrist/middle-of-the-road voters who are looking for a moderate/centrist candidate.

Most voters registered to vote with no party affiliation are really people who align with, and overwhelmingly vote for, one party or another. They don’t really switch back and forth and aren’t really up for grabs. That’s the assessment shared by Phillippi; Steve Schale, the Democratic strategist who ran the Florida campaigns for his party’s two most recent big wins, by Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012; Kevin Wagner, a political science professor at Florida Atlantic University; and others.

Wagner said that “many NPA voters are actually partisan voters, they just don’t identify or register as a member of  a party.” Phillippi termed them “closet partisans.” Schale estimated 75% or more are strongly partisan, aligned with either the Democrats or Republicans.

Many people don’t want to have a party label attached to their names in public records. Others are conservative, and think the Republican Party isn’t conservative enough, or are liberal and think the Democratic Party isn’t liberal enough. And some don’t care enough about politics to pick a party, said Susan MacManus, a professor emerita of political science at the University of South Florida.

And although their numbers look large on paper, their theoretical impact as a voting bloc is diluted because NPA voters turn out at a lower rate than people who are registered in one of the two big parties, Phillippi said.

Florida trial lawyer political donor John Morgan speaks to the Capital Tiger Bay Club in Tallahassee on May 14, 2025. (Kate Payne/Associated Press)
Florida trial lawyer political donor John Morgan speaks to the Capital Tiger Bay Club in Tallahassee on May 14, 2025. (Kate Payne/Associated Press)

NPA, third party?

Several terms can apply to non-Democrats or non-Republicans.

In Florida, someone doesn’t want to register to vote in a political party can sign up as “no party affiliation,” or NPA. Many people use no party affiliation or NPA synonymously with independent.

Florida also has an actual “Independent Party.” Elections supervisors have said that some voters, confused by the name and considering themselves independent, inadvertently register in that party when their actual intention would be to register as NPA.

As of April 30, 25.8% of Florida’s registered voters are NPA.

Florida also has many minor parties — often referred to as “third” parties even though there are currently 15 of them.

About 2% of the state’s voters are registered with the Independent Party. Another 1.1% are divided among the Conservative, Constitution, Ecology, Green, Libertarian and Reform and eight other parties.

Spoiler

A widely shared assessment is that Morgan or Pizzo would act as a spoiler, dividing the votes of people who want something different from what they’ve had since 1998 when Republicans began their unbroken streak of governor’s race wins.

“It can work, but in most cases it just ends up splitting the opposition vote,” Wagner said. “In most cases third-party candidates are more likely to be a spoiler than to be successful.”

Broward County Commissioner Steve Geller and Palm Beach County Commissioner Maria Sachs, both Democrats and former members of the Florida House and Senate, said they hope Pizzo and Morgan ultimately don’t run.

If one of them is on the ballot, “then it will split our party and a Republican will walk in,” Sachs said. “An independent candidate with money would certainly hurt the Democrats … I do not think that an independent party or no political affiliation (candidate) can win any seat in this state.”

David Jolly is a former Tampa Bay Republican congressman who became an NPA voter in 2018. He registered as a Democrat in April as he readies for an all-but-certain candidacy for his new party’s nomination for governor. He is direct about the impact of an independent candidate.

“There’s not a winning, viable path for an NPA,” Jolly said in a recent interview. “An NPA in 2026 in the governor’s race hands Tallahassee to Byron Donalds or Casey DeSantis. That’s it. There’s no other outcome.”

Donalds, a Republican congressman, is already running. DeSantis, the wife of Gov. Ron DeSantis, hasn’t yet said if she’ll seek the Republican nomination. Term limits prohibit Ron DeSantis from running again.

Pizzo bristled at the idea that he’d be a spoiler.

“If they think that I’m a spoiler, then they’re concerned about the merit of their own message and the strength of their own message or policy or whatever it is. But really the reality is that there are a lot of really, really excited people and groups about my position. … I hear it every single day in droves,” Pizzo told WFOR-Ch. 4.

Florida Sen. Jason Pizzo speaks during a Broward Housing Council workshop at the Anne Kolb Nature Center in Hollywood on Oct. 30, 2024. (Mike Stocker/South Florida Sun Sentinel)
Florida Sen. Jason Pizzo speaks during a Broward Housing Council workshop at the Anne Kolb Nature Center in Hollywood on Oct. 30, 2024. (Mike Stocker/South Florida Sun Sentinel)

‘A math problem’

Schale, who said he is “proud to be a Democrat,” said he’s intrigued by Morgan’s efforts and is sympathetic to the desire by some people to have an alternative, centrist party.

But he doesn’t think the numbers work. “I think it’s a math problem. That’s why third-party candidacies over 200 years have largely failed,” Schale said.

Republicans start out with a big advantage in Florida, thanks to their big lead among registered voters — 1.25 million ahead of the Democrats as of April 30 — and their tendency to vote for their party’s nominee.

Only if enough Republicans and enough Democrats break from their parties, could independent voters put a candidate over the top. “I’m skeptical,” Schale said. He likened it to getting Jacksonville Jaguars fans to support the Tennessee Titans, or University of Florida fans to support the University of Miami.

It would still be exceedingly difficult because, he said, even a candidate promoting themselves as a moderate centrist would likely take positions that would alienate some voters. If, for example, a candidate supports abortion rights, that would turn off some anti-abortion NPA voters, Schale said.

Schale said a win would likely require one of the two major parties to implode politically. “You would probably need one of the two party nominees to almost not exist.”

History suggests it won’t happen. Florida has elected only Democrats and Republicans as governor or to the U.S. Senate for more than 100 years.

Phillippi said the notion of an independent candidate capturing enough votes for a victory was more plausible as recently as 15 or 20 years ago. Even then, in the three-way contest for U.S. Senate in 2010 between Republican Marco Rubio, NPA Charlie Crist and Democrat Kendrick Meek, it didn’t happen.

Crist was the sitting Republican governor, but broke away when it became obvious he wouldn’t win the party’s primary for U.S. Senate. Rubio won with Crist finishing second.

Today, Phillippi and Wagner said, political polarization is so extensive that people are much more likely to stick with their party.

MacManus agreed that the consensus among most people involved in politics is that an independent or minor party candidate would lose and doom the Democrats’ chances, but she’s not completely convinced.

“Independents are an increasingly important bloc of voters,” she said. More people, especially young voters, are “turning their backs on political parties,” creating a potential path.

Schale too said it’s not completely impossible, though unlikely “We live in these unprecedented times,” he said. “The world’s kind of a mess right now and voters are frustrated.”

Morgan, Pizzo

A major challenge for Pizzo is that, even though his name is known in political circles, he’s not a familiar name to many people beyond that realm. Representing one of 40 state Senate districts is far different from getting known in a large state with 10 media markets.

Morgan said in Tallahassee he didn’t think Pizzo had the name recognition to win.

Morgan is far better known than Pizzo. His face is ubiquitous on TV ads and billboards promoting his law firm and its “For the People” slogan. Best known as a personal injury lawyer, he also has political experience. He was the driving force behind referendums that increased the minimum wage in Florida and legalized medical marijuana.

Morgan and Pizzo are both wealthy, and have the resources to put millions of dollars of their own money into campaigns. It would take lots of money and time to develop a campaign infrastructure that can turn out voters, or at least attempt to do so.

Republicans

Republicans are using the Morgan and Pizzo moves to highlight state Democrats’ political difficulties.

And, with Morgan planning the contest to come up with a name for his new party, the Republicans offered up some of their own suggestions — such as “United Ambulance Chasers” party to reflect Morgan’s occupation — and launched its own online form for people to submit ideas.

Power said later via text that Morgan’s and Pizzo’s quests are doomed and show the Democratic Party is incapable of winning elections.

“Their idea of third-party runs are just further proof that the Florida Democratic Party is dead. Both Pizzo and Morgan are radical liberals, just slapping a new label on themselves won’t fix their flawed views,” Power said. “A third-party candidate has zero chance of winning, just ask Charlie Crist.”

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.

Originally Published:

RevContent Feed